By Key Points
- Bitcoin to Rally in March
- Bitcoin is closely following global M2 money supply trends.
- Analysts predict a major rally between March and May 2025.
- Expanding liquidity and potential Fed rate cuts support growth.
- Experts see Bitcoin’s next big move tied to macroeconomic shifts.
Bitcoin is once again in the spotlight as analysts predict a major rally, citing a strong correlation between BTC price movements and the global M2 money supply.
As liquidity expands worldwide, experts anticipate a bullish phase for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, potentially beginning around March 25 and lasting until mid-May 2025.
Global financial conditions are shifting, with growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and increasing M2 supply.
These factors create a favorable environment for Bitcoin, reinforcing its reputation as a hedge against inflation and fiat devaluation.
An EPIC RALLY is coming soon for STOCKS, BITCOIN, CRYPTO
The Global M2 Money Supply line just went vertical.
It shows a predictive correlation to BTC & stocks.
Rally: March 25 – May 14 (or beyond) pic.twitter.com/NWNL2S121P
— Colin Talks Crypto 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) March 5, 2025
M2 Money Supply and Bitcoin’s Price Surge
The M2 money supply measures the total amount of liquid money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a strong link to M2 fluctuations—when liquidity rises, so does BTC demand.
Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto recently pointed out that global M2 has seen a sharp spike, describing it as a “vertical line” on the charts.
He believes this signals an impending surge in asset prices, including Bitcoin, stocks, and the broader crypto market. His forecast suggests a rally beginning on March 25, 2025, and continuing until May 14, 2025.
Bitcoin and M2 Money Supply Correlation. Source: Colin Talks Crypto on X– Techtoken
“The Global M2 Money Supply chart just printed another vertical line. The rally for stocks, Bitcoin, and crypto is going to be epic,” Colin remarked.
Vandell, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, supports this analysis, emphasizing that Bitcoin tends to follow M2 movements with a 10-week delay.
When M2 declines, BTC and crypto markets typically experience downturns weeks later. However, he believes that the current M2 expansion sets the stage for a long-term bull cycle.
“While further downside is possible, this liquidity shift will likely continue throughout the year, setting the stage for the next leg up,” Vandell stated.
Meanwhile, renowned crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe lists M2 expansion as a key factor for an early crypto market recovery.
He notes that the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, a weakening U.S. dollar, and falling yields will likely create optimal conditions for Bitcoin’s next big move.
“Inflation isn’t the main concern anymore. Rate cuts are coming. The dollar is weakening. Yields are falling. M2 is expanding. It’s just a matter of time before crypto picks up,” van de Poppe explained.
Bitcoin’s History With M2 and Fed Policies
Bitcoin’s relationship with M2 isn’t new. Macro analyst Tomas highlights how the largest BTC rallies in 2017 and 2020 aligned with significant increases in global M2 supply. He suggests that 2025 could see a similar pattern, provided the U.S. dollar weakens further.
“The last two major M2 surges triggered Bitcoin’s strongest years. Could 2025 be the next one? It depends on whether the U.S. dollar declines significantly,” Tomas noted.
Another critical factor is the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy. Researcher Yimin Xu believes that the Fed might halt its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policies in the second half of 2025.
If economic conditions worsen, the central bank may even shift back to Quantitative Easing (QE)—a move that could inject massive liquidity into financial markets, benefiting Bitcoin.
DXY Performance. Source: TradingView – Techtoken
“I predict the Fed will terminate QT in late Q3 or Q4, possibly moving toward QE if needed. That could trigger another wave of liquidity,” Xu explained.
Despite these bullish predictions, analysts caution that macro risks remain, including potential economic shocks and dollar strength. However, the broader consensus points toward a strong upward trajectory for Bitcoin in the coming months.
Investors and traders will closely watch the M2 trends and Federal Reserve signals to confirm whether this predicted rally materializes.
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