By Abhijeet
Key Points
- $2.58B in BTC and ETH options set to expire today
- Bitcoin put-to-call ratio at 1.25 signals bearish bets
- Ethereum’s put-to-call ratio at 1.41 adds to concerns
- Expiry expected to cause short-term price volatility
Bitcoin and Ethereum traders are bracing for a wave of volatility as $2.58 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today. The sentiment is skewed bearish, with key data pointing to a strong inclination toward downside protection.
Bitcoin leads the expiry count with $2.18 billion in open contracts, while Ethereum follows with $396 million. Although this figure is lower than the massive quarterly expiration last week, the mood in the market has turned more cautious.
Expiring Bitcoin Options. Source: Deribit – Techtoken
As per data from Deribit, Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio is 1.25, meaning more traders are buying puts than calls. This often signals that investors expect or are hedging against a price drop. The maximum pain point for BTC—the level where the most options expire worthless—is pegged at $84,000. At the time of writing, BTC is trading near $82,895, slightly under that level.
Ethereum’s situation looks even more bearish. With a put-to-call ratio of 1.41, a greater share of options holders are betting against the asset. Its max pain level is at $1,850, while the current price sits around $1,790.
Expiring Ethereum Options. Source: Deribit – Techtoken
According to the Max Pain Theory, asset prices often gravitate toward the pain point as expiry nears to maximize options expiry losses—especially for retail traders. This theory could play out again today, especially with smart money players aiming to minimize payouts.
The last time such an expiration wave hit, during Q1 2025, it triggered notable swings in the market. For more on that, check our in-depth coverage of the Bitcoin Q1 2025 crash and how whales responded.
🚨 Options Expiry Alert! 🚨
Last week’s quarterly expiry brought the heat, this week’s setup is quieter, but positioning still matters.
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, ~$2.5B in crypto options are set to expire.$BTC: $2.16B notional | Put/Call: 1.27 | Max Pain: $85K $ETH: $371M… pic.twitter.com/zPezzcVn1B
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) April 3, 2025
Trump’s Tariffs and Bearish Flow Amplify Market Fear
Adding to the pressure is a fresh wave of global uncertainty triggered by Donald Trump’s new tariff policy. The former U.S. president announced 10% general tariffs and a 25% rate on autos, a move that some saw as a protective stance but many traders took as a sign of further economic disruption.
The initial reaction saw BTC spike to $88K, which was quickly reversed as the reality of potential trade fallout set in. Analysts at Greeks.live highlighted that options flow became increasingly bearish, with large-volume put contracts dominating.
https://t.co/n0OcjSGEsP Community Daily Digest
Published: 2025-04-03
Overall Market Sentiment
The group is predominantly bearish following Trump’s tariff announcement of 10% blanket tariffs and 25% on auto, which was lower than market expectations but still seen as negative…
— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) April 3, 2025
In a recent breakdown, Greeks.live reported that traders had bought 700 $79K BTC puts expiring end of April, a clear signal that some market participants expect continued weakness. Strategies such as short calls and put calendars are gaining popularity in this climate—both of which profit from sideways or falling prices.
This shift in sentiment aligns with a broader downturn across the crypto landscape. For example, Bitcoin ETF outflows surged to $222M recently, reflecting investors’ growing unease over macroeconomic instability.
Meanwhile, Ethereum hasn’t escaped the pressure either. With sentiment so heavily bearish, any bounce toward the $1,850 pain point might be short-lived.
🚨 BREAKING 🚨
$17,800,000,000 WORTH OF
BITCOIN AND ETH OPTIONS
WILL EXPIRE TOMORROW.EXPECT HIGH VOLATILITY
— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) December 26, 2024
Wider Crypto Market Remains On Edge
Beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum options, the bearish tone appears to spill over into the broader Web3 and DeFi sectors. From ETF filings to insolvency rumors, caution seems to be the prevailing mood.
Earlier this week, speculation surrounding Justin Sun’s alleged insolvency made waves in the market. Although unverified, the claim cast a shadow over Tron and several connected DeFi platforms.
Meanwhile, ETF activity remains mixed. A recent VanEck filing for a Spot BNB ETF could be a long-term bullish signal, but it has done little to ease short-term concerns.
On the innovation front, sectors like AI and crypto convergence are still gaining momentum. AI agent tokens have been trending, showing how some niches remain insulated from the broader sell-off—at least for now.
However, the sheer volume of today’s $2.6 billion expiry is likely to dictate the tone for the weekend. Whether prices push back toward max pain levels or break lower will depend heavily on how traders position post-expiry.
Today’s market conditions remind traders that even in bull runs, sharp corrections and short-term volatility are never far away—especially when Bitcoin and Ethereum options dominate the trading narrative.
What's your reaction?
