Bitcoin Breakout May Be Closer Than You Think

Key Points

• Bitcoin Breakout May Be Closer Than You Think
• Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $936M in a day, highest since Jan 2025
• BTC exchange inflows fall to 2016 levels, reducing sell pressure
• Negative funding rates hint at a potential short squeeze
• BTC trades above key 200-day SMA, strengthening bullish momentum

Bitcoin is knocking on the door of a major resistance zone. After surging to $94,700 on April 23, BTC is now closer than ever to breaking through the long-watched Bitcoin $95K resistance level.

The $94K–$95K zone is clearly the resistance to beat.

🔹A pullback to gain momentum seems like the next logical move, but how far?

The $89K–$90K zone could be next to test bulls, but with BTC’s structure strength, these dips are for buying.

Follow the move with us! pic.twitter.com/VbloG8KEzM

— Swissblock (@swissblock__) April 24, 2025

This isn’t just a technical hurdle—it’s also a psychological one. Analysts say surpassing this mark could open the floodgates to six-figure territory.

Let’s explore the four major reasons why this breakout could happen sooner rather than later.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Swissblock – Techtoken

ETF Inflows and Shrinking Supply Point to Growing Demand

The demand side of the Bitcoin equation is heating up fast. Over just two days—April 22 and 23—spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in a massive $1.85 billion combined. According to data from SoSoValue, those are the highest daily inflows since January 2025 and 500x the daily average this year.

📈#Bitcoin consolidating under resistance‼️

While the market digests the latest Trump comments, best case IMO is $BTC consolidating and building a base before pushing higher to take liquidity above 100k.#Crypto #BTC https://t.co/P2Fp7TGIxX pic.twitter.com/clAEUky8dF

— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) April 24, 2025

These ETFs represent serious money from traditional finance. Institutional investors are diving back in, boosting market confidence. Analyst Jamie Coutts notes this surge comes as global liquidity hits an all-time high—a condition that has historically driven asset prices upward.

This trend continues a wave of institutional interest, including news like the launch of another Bitcoin investment fund, aiming to simplify crypto exposure for traditional investors.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: SoSoValue – Techtoken

At the same time, supply on exchanges is dwindling. According to CryptoQuant, daily BTC deposits to exchanges dropped from 97,940 BTC in Febrsouary to just 45,000 BTC as of April 23.

That’s not all. The number of Bitcoin deposit addresses is also down, with a 30-day average of 52,000—the lowest since December 2016.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. sees this as a big bullish signal. “It shows growing HODL behavior and reduced sell pressure,” he says. In other words, people are holding their BTC, not selling it.

Global Liquidity hits new ATHs after the longest contraction in decades. Yes, it’s dollar-driven—but that’s exactly what has historically fueled explosive asset price rallies.https://t.co/hdGkl9hYZf

1/2 pic.twitter.com/FZ7SwUDWN6

— Jamie Coutts CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) April 23, 2025

This mix of rising institutional demand and shrinking exchange supply creates the perfect setup for price growth. It also aligns with the steady rise of corporate interest, such as Metaplanet’s increasing Bitcoin holdings, reflecting growing confidence in BTC’s long-term value.

Negative Funding and Technical Indicators Align for Bulls

Here’s where things get even more interesting.

Despite Bitcoin’s 11% price jump between April 22 and 23, funding rates for BTC perpetual futures remain negative. That means traders betting on Bitcoin’s fall are paying those betting on its rise.

This mismatch can spark a short squeeze—a quick burst upward as short positions are forced to buy back in when prices rise.

The number of addresses depositing bitcoins to exchanges has been steadily declining since 2022: the 30-day moving average has now dropped to 52K addresses compared to the 365-day level of 71K. Meanwhile, over the past 10 years, the most common distribution was around 92K… pic.twitter.com/sBAKWS9Jlb

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 24, 2025

CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost pointed out a similar setup on Binance. He noted that negative funding rates and rising prices have often preceded major rallies. Past examples include Bitcoin’s leap from $28K to $73K in October 2023, and $57K to $108K in September 2024.

Meanwhile, BTC is now trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently around $88,690. This is a key bullish indicator. The last time BTC broke above this level in October 2024, it soared by 80% within two months.

The 200-day SMA is now acting as a solid support zone, further reducing the likelihood of a steep drop from here.

Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates. Source: Glassnode – Techtoken

This price strength also follows recent geopolitical and macro developments. For instance, after Trump calmed the Fed drama, Bitcoin saw renewed buying interest, and similar sentiment shifts could fuel the next leg up.

Bitcoin funding rates on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant – Techtoken

Rising On-Chain Signals and Reserves Add to Bullish Case

On-chain trends are reinforcing the case for a breakout. Beyond declining exchange inflows, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics point to long-term holders strengthening their grip.

Exchange reserve data shows a clear pattern. For example, Binance’s Bitcoin reserves have steadily declined over recent months, indicating fewer coins are being held for quick sale. This decline suggests long-term conviction is building among retail and institutional holders alike.

Additionally, the market has shown a pattern of reacting strongly to political shocks. One prime example was the Trump–Powell clash, which triggered a sharp dollar sell-off and sent BTC flying to $87K in days.

When central bank signals or political moves shake markets, Bitcoin has become a go-to hedge. This underlying narrative continues to attract attention and capital.

With Bitcoin’s structure looking solid across the board—from spot demand to derivatives setup and on-chain behavior—analysts agree that the Bitcoin $95K resistance may be broken sooner than expected.

Resistance at $95K, Then Eyes on $100K

Swissblock analysts say the $94K–$95K zone is the resistance to beat. While a minor pullback to the $90K region is possible to gain momentum, the overall structure remains strong.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView – Techtoken

Popular crypto voice AlphaBTC believes BTC could consolidate between $93K–$95K before making a move to grab liquidity above $100,000.

Looking at the chart, key support levels sit at:

• $88,690 (200-day SMA)

• $84,379 (50-day SMA)

• $80,000 (psychological support)

On the upside, breaking past $95K would shift focus to $100K and eventually Bitcoin’s all-time high at $109,000, set on January 20.

BTC is showing multiple signs of strength: strong institutional demand, shrinking sell pressure, favorable technicals, and bearish funding setups. All of these factors suggest the long-awaited Bitcoin $95K resistance breakout could just be a matter of time.