By Key Points
- Over $14.21B in BTC and ETH options set to expire today
- BTC’s notional value hits $12.075B with max pain at $85,000
- ETH sees $2.135B in options expiry, max pain point at $2,400
- Implied volatility hints at post-expiry price swings in both markets
Quarterly Options Expiry has arrived — and with it, a wave of tension in the crypto markets. Today, over $14.21 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are set to expire, making this one of the biggest expiry events of the year. This high-volume expiry lands on the last Friday of March, marking the end of both the month and Q1.
According to Deribit data, Bitcoin (BTC) dominates the scene with a massive $12.075 billion in expiring options. These 139,260 contracts carry a put-to-call ratio of 0.49, indicating a larger share of call (buy) options compared to puts (sell). The maximum pain point, or the price level where the most options holders face losses, stands at $85,000 — just below Bitcoin’s current market price of $85,960.
Expiring Bitcoin Options. Source: Deribit – Techtoken
On the Ethereum side, 1,068,519 ETH options contracts worth $2.135 billion are also expiring. The put-to-call ratio here is even lower at 0.39, and the max pain point is set at $2,400. Both assets are approaching their respective pain points, which historically results in price movements as expiry pressure builds.
This expiry is significantly larger than last week’s. Just a week ago, only 21,596 BTC options and 133,447 ETH options expired, with notional values of $1.826 billion and $264.46 million respectively. The jump in volume today reflects the combined monthly and quarterly options expiry, a major event that typically introduces volatility into the market.
Expiring Ethereum Options. Source: Deribit – Techtoken
If you’re following the trend of volatile crypto movements, the recent Ghibli Token surge offers another example of how sudden shifts in market dynamics — such as listings or expiries — can shake investor sentiment.
🚨 Options Expiry Alert! 🚨
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, ~$2.09B in crypto options are set to expire.$BTC: $1.83B notional | Put/Call: 0.85 | Max Pain: $85K $ETH: $259M notional | Put/Call: 0.60 | Max Pain: $2K
Will we see a volatility squeeze or a slow unwind?
Stay ahead with… pic.twitter.com/lJLMwAvioP
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) March 20, 2025
Volatility Curves Reflect Market Anxiety
Market analysts are closely watching implied volatility (IV) — the market’s forecast of likely price moves. For Bitcoin, the IV curve shows a clear upside skew, with calls priced significantly higher than puts. This suggests traders are betting on upward movement, even if short-term sentiment remains cautious.
In contrast, Ethereum’s IV curve is flatter, signaling neutral directional bias but still elevated volatility. This implies that while traders aren’t heavily leaning bullish or bearish, they do expect significant price action around expiry.
Deribit analysts highlighted these trends, stating:
https://t.co/n0OcjSGEsP Community Daily Digest
Published: 2025-03-20
Overall Market Sentiment
The group appears divided with some traders expecting a post-FOMC dump while others think the market might wick higher before choppy conditions persist. Traders are closely watching…
— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) March 20, 2025
Other market watchers, including analysts at Greeks.live, noted that sentiment is turning cautiously bearish, especially for Bitcoin. Many expect a retest of lower support levels around $84,000 to $85,000, aligning with the current max pain zone.
BTC’s current price near $85,960 suggests it could slide slightly toward that pain point before or shortly after expiry. Some traders, however, argue Bitcoin is range-bound, with little movement unless a breakout is triggered. According to Greeks.live, resistance is expected around $88,400, a level with noticeable selling pressure. Support is observed at $77,000, which one analyst dubbed a “definite bottom.”
Adding to the complexity, implied volatility is being impacted by quarterly settlement, creating sharp IV mark fluctuations. These conditions could present opportunities for traders using both manual and algorithmic strategies to profit from market swings.
Interestingly, we’ve seen similar breakout potential when new platforms shake things up. Look at the KiloEx TGE launch, where market excitement drove a massive 2300% surge — reminding us that volatility often follows anticipation.
Crypto Options Expiry Highlights Growing TradFi Influence
Today’s expiry is also a reflection of how traditional finance (TradFi) structures continue to shape the crypto derivatives market. Just like equity options expire on Fridays in global markets, crypto platforms such as Deribit align expiry dates the same way to offer familiarity for institutional traders.
With over $14 billion at stake today, this quarterly options expiry highlights how integrated and matured the crypto derivatives space has become. These events not only impact short-term price action but also signal where institutional capital is focusing.
We’ve seen this TradFi influence grow across the board. The rise in short sale volume, like with the GameStop frenzy, mirrors similar trading behavior now emerging in crypto — especially around large expiries and meme-driven moves.
And it’s not just Bitcoin and Ethereum reacting to market forces. Meme tokens and microcaps, like those on Pump.fun’s new revenue-sharing platform, show how liquidity, volatility, and TradFi-like mechanics are now influencing every corner of crypto.
Even communication is changing — like Binance founder CZ’s bold BNB messaging play, showing how every aspect of trading, strategy, and user interaction is becoming monetized and structured — just like TradFi.
As the quarterly options expiry closes out Q1, expect price moves to continue into the weekend. With so much institutional money riding on key strike prices, the real question is whether crypto will break out, break down, or continue to consolidate before the next wave of momentum.
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