AI Cyclone Model Beats Top Weather Tools by 87 Miles

Key Points

• AI Cyclone Model Beats Top Weather Tools by 87 Miles
• Google partners with US National Hurricane Center on AI cyclone model
• New tool generates 50 storm scenarios, aiding early preparation
• Weather Lab launched to showcase AI forecasting tools

Google is taking a big leap into weather forecasting. It has developed a new AI cyclone model that can predict tropical cyclones up to 15 days in advance — and it’s now working closely with the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) to test how well it performs.

The project is part of Google’s broader push into climate and disaster tech. Today, Google DeepMind and Google Research unveiled Weather Lab, a new website where it shares experimental AI weather models.

One standout feature is its AI cyclone forecasting model, capable of producing 50 different scenarios for a storm’s path, size, and intensity.

This collaboration aims to improve early warnings and give people more time to prepare. Especially now, as extreme weather grows more unpredictable, better tools are urgently needed.

Weather Lab shows real-time and historical cyclone predictions for different traditional and AI weather models. ☁️

These insights could help experts to better anticipate a cyclone’s path and wind intensity, so they can prepare for all scenarios, share news of risks involved, and… pic.twitter.com/t8NwIZj0ys

— Google DeepMind (@GoogleDeepMind) June 12, 2025

Google’s AI cyclone model shows promising results

The new AI model could be a game-changer. According to Google, its five-day forecasts for cyclone tracks in the North Atlantic and East Pacific regions were on average 87 miles (140 km) closer to the actual storm paths than predictions made by the respected European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) during the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

That level of accuracy matters. It can mean the difference between communities being caught off guard and having days of valuable preparation time.

The model is trained using Europe’s massive ERA5 weather archive. This dataset combines millions of real-world observations from global weather agencies with simulations from traditional physics-based models.

We’re using AI to improve cyclone prediction. 🌀

Introducing Weather Lab: a new interactive platform developed with @GoogleResearch, hosting our experimental AI weather model which can predict a cyclone’s track, intensity, size and structure.

Here’s how it works. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/awSzAojeWk

— Google DeepMind (@GoogleDeepMind) June 12, 2025

Importantly, Google says its AI does not replace traditional forecasting — it complements it. Despite its advanced capabilities, the AI model still relies heavily on traditional data sources and human expertise.

Weather Lab’s interactive website allows researchers — and the curious public — to compare AI-based cyclone forecasts with ECMWF’s trusted models. But Google stresses that the site is currently for research purposes only and should not be used for official forecasts.

Google released a research paper today explaining the science behind the model. While it has not yet been peer-reviewed, early results suggest it is at least as accurate as traditional models in key forecasting areas.

Meanwhile, AI’s expanding role in industries is raising new questions — from ChatGPT’s water usage to ethical AI concerns, and legal battles such as Reddit suing Anthropic over data use.

This experimental model is a new deep neural network model, trained on decades of historical data as well as almost 5,000 observed cyclones, which predicts a wide range of global weather conditions. 🌐 pic.twitter.com/Z835gxvZ7l

— Google DeepMind (@GoogleDeepMind) June 12, 2025

Challenges and concerns as AI meets weather forecasting

Google isn’t alone in exploring AI’s potential in weather prediction. Other companies and agencies are also testing AI-driven models, hoping to improve forecasting amid an era of growing climate uncertainty.

But AI models are still in the early stages of proving their reliability. Traditional models, based on well-understood physics and decades of validation, remain essential. For now, AI is seen as a powerful assistant rather than a replacement.

There are also political challenges in the US. Recent budget and staffing cuts at federal climate agencies, including NOAA (which houses the NHC), have weakened public weather services. Meanwhile, some fear that privatizing parts of weather forecasting could lead to vital information becoming a paid product.

Google’s DeepMind researcher Peter Battaglia addressed this concern in a press call, stating:
“For a long time, weather has been viewed as a public good… Hopefully we can contribute to that by partnering with the public sector.”

Interestingly, while Google previously linked its AI weather work directly to combating climate change, today’s announcement downplayed that connection.

In December 2024, the company said: “As climate change drives more extreme weather events, accurate and trustworthy forecasts are more essential than ever.” But this time, the focus remained squarely on technological innovation and public service.

Looking ahead, Google is also collaborating with other top research groups — including Colorado State University’s Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere and teams in the UK and Japan — to keep refining its models.

As AI rapidly progresses — with innovations like OpenAI O3 Pro and major tech firms such as NVIDIA warning about UK AI infrastructure — its role in forecasting and other critical services will only grow.

At the same time, AI’s potential is reaching consumer applications too, as seen with WatchOS 26’s AI Workout Buddy, helping users improve their fitness with smart coaching.

As hurricane season ramps up, the NHC will evaluate Google’s AI cyclone model in real-world conditions. The results could help determine just how far AI can take us in forecasting nature’s most powerful storms.