Powerful Bitcoin Gold Correlation Signals $150K BTC After $123K High

Key Points

• Bitcoin Gold Correlation Signals $150K BTC After $123K High
• Experts say Bitcoin often trails gold before making a big breakout.
• Market strategist highlights BTC as a top asset alongside gold in 2025.
• Rate cut forecasts and deficit growth boost demand for safe-haven assets.

Bitcoin has smashed through its previous records, hitting a new all-time high of $123,700 in early Asian trading. The surge is catching global attention—but this time, it’s not happening in isolation.

Experts say the climb is tied closely to Bitcoin’s growing correlation with gold. The yellow metal has been on a tear, up 29% in 2025, and Bitcoin has followed closely, gaining 25%. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, sees a familiar pattern here.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), he noted that gold often leads, and Bitcoin follows.

This happened in 2020, when gold ran first, and Bitcoin followed with a massive bull run. Edwards highlighted a “gap” forming now, similar to the one from that year, suggesting Bitcoin may soon catch up once again.

Bitcoin and Gold Correlation. Source: X/Caprioleio– Techtoken

Crypto investor Jelle shares a similar outlook. According to him, if Bitcoin tracks gold like it has historically, we could soon see BTC climbing to $150,000.

Gold leads, #Bitcoin follows.

Time to close the gap.

$150,000. pic.twitter.com/SooZgaA6pf

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) August 13, 2025

This trend is also supported by major institutional moves. For example, MetaPlanet’s recent Bitcoin purchase of 18,113 BTC has sent strong bullish signals, reinforcing confidence in Bitcoin’s store-of-value status.

$GLD and $BTC correlated to each other last 3 years.

Don’t fight brothers.

OWN BOTH!

With that said, Gold looks ready again… pic.twitter.com/zk3bSXXFAi

— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) August 13, 2025

Macro Conditions Are Favoring Bitcoin’s Ascent

Behind this trend is more than just chart analysis. Major macroeconomic forces are creating the perfect backdrop for Bitcoin to thrive.

Charlie Bilello, Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning, recently pointed out that Bitcoin and gold are the best-performing assets of 2025. This is the first time in history that both have held the top spots simultaneously.

Gold (+29%) and Bitcoin (+25%) are the top performing major assets so far in 2025. We’ve never seen these two in the #1/#2 spots for any calendar year. $GLD $BTC

Video: https://t.co/SddQJ2cqsV pic.twitter.com/lydd41WwcQ

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 9, 2025

Investors are paying attention. Inflation concerns, central bank moves, and a shaky global economy are pushing capital into safer assets. And in 2025, Bitcoin appears to be getting the same treatment as gold, a store of value in uncertain times.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is seeing sharp shifts:

• Tariff revenue jumped 300% in July, hitting $29.6 billion.

• Still, the federal deficit ballooned to $630 billion, covering only a small portion of the gap.

• Government spending nearly doubled the revenue intake.

The Trump-era crypto enforcement policies have also contributed to shaping the market landscape, impacting investor strategies and regulatory sentiment.

The Kobeissi Letter broke this down on X, stating that while tariff income is at a record, it only covers 10% of the deficit. That’s not sustainable. As a result, confidence in traditional financial systems is fading, and investors are looking elsewhere, toward assets like Bitcoin and gold.

The solution still comes down to spending.

Despite record tariff revenues, the US spent nearly DOUBLE what it received in July.

If we can reduce spending, President Trump’s tariffs could significantly help eliminate the deficit.

The gap is simply too big to fill right now. pic.twitter.com/0hPgnLQrMX

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 13, 2025

Even major firms are adapting. Recently, crypto treasury firms scored big after Pantera Capital invested $300 million, showcasing institutional faith in long-term digital assets.

Interest Rate Cuts Could Be the Final Push

One major catalyst could drive Bitcoin even higher: a potential rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a rate cut in September 2025 have soared to 95.8%. Rate cuts typically weaken the U.S. dollar and drive investors toward alternative assets like crypto.

As a result, Gold and Bitcoin are surging.

We have a combination of sustained tariffs, elevated deficit spending, and rising rate cut expectations.

As we have been saying for 12+ months, this is the best possible fundamental backdrop for both Gold and Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/ZhjKYRekU5

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 13, 2025

Lower interest rates also mean cheaper borrowing, which increases liquidity in the market. Historically, such environments have been extremely bullish for crypto. If the Fed follows through, Bitcoin could see accelerated gains in the final quarter of 2025.

As Kobeissi put it:

“This is the best possible fundamental backdrop for both Gold and Bitcoin.”

If central banks ease policies while economic pressures continue to mount, investors may further embrace Bitcoin as digital gold—pushing it well past its current peak.

Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Cut Probability in September 2025. Source: CME FedWatch – Techtoken

Notably, other tokens like Stellar (XLM) are also showing momentum, hinting at a broader altcoin rally if Bitcoin continues its rise.

Will Bitcoin Finally Close the Gap With Gold?

So, what does this gold-Bitcoin correlation tell us?

It suggests that Bitcoin has more room to run. The current momentum mirrors past market cycles where gold surged first, and Bitcoin exploded shortly after. Experts like Charles Edwards and Jelle see this as a reliable pattern.

Combine that with record government deficits, rising tariff tensions, and a looming rate cut, and the case for Bitcoin breaking into the $150,000 territory becomes much stronger.

The market is also watching whales and key players like Vitalik Buterin, whose movements in Ethereum holdings often give clues about broader crypto sentiment.

And with threats like North Korean crypto hackers still looming, Bitcoin’s decentralized and secure nature continues to draw investors looking for safety.

If this correlation holds, and history does repeat itself, Bitcoin’s recent all-time high could just be the beginning of a much bigger rally.