Fed Rate Cut Likely on July 30 as Crypto Holds Strong

Key Points

• FOMC minutes reveal possible rate cut on July 30
• Inflation seen as easing, but risks from tariffs linger
• Labor market softens, increasing chances of rate easing
• Bitcoin, Ethereum hold steady, eyeing CPI and Fed decisions

The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes suggest a Fed rate cut could happen sooner than expected—possibly as early as July 30. This development has sparked cautious optimism across global markets, especially within the crypto space.

During the June 17–18 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. But for the first time in months, the tone of the minutes showed a noticeable shift.

Recession odds have dropped to the lowest level since January.

But Amazon Prime Day sales are down -41% on day one.

Recession talks back on the table? pic.twitter.com/uYfQirsk00

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) July 9, 2025

Most participants now see at least one Fed rate cut as likely in 2025, and a few are open to doing it at the next meeting—if inflation data continues to trend down. The Fed also noted that economic uncertainty has decreased, giving them more confidence to ease policy.

However, the optimism isn’t unanimous.

Some Fed officials remain concerned about sticky inflation and a labor market that, while cooling slightly, still shows strength. They argue that acting too soon could fuel inflation again, especially since households and businesses still expect elevated short-term prices.

The minutes also flagged recent tariff hikes as a new inflation risk. While most officials believe the impact will be temporary, a few warned about potential ripple effects that could raise costs across the board.

This cautious stance follows a series of unexpected developments in the crypto space this month, including the Grayscale ETF delay, which added to regulatory uncertainty.

It’s official:

President Trump is now calling for the first 300+ basis point interest rate cut in US history.

This would be 3 TIMES larger than the 100 bps cut on March 15th, 2020, the largest in history.

So, what happens if the Fed does this? Let us explain.

(a thread) pic.twitter.com/k3Bo0ri1zY

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 9, 2025

Crypto Investors Brace for CPI and July Fed Decision

So far, crypto markets have reacted with measured calm to the possibility of a July Fed rate cut. Bitcoin is hovering around $109,000, while Ethereum remains near $2,700.

This muted response is mostly due to timing. While traders are hopeful, they’re also cautious. Everyone is now watching the upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on July 11. That data will likely make or break the case for a July rate cut.

If inflation continues to ease, the Fed may finally move. That would be a bullish signal for crypto. Lower rates increase liquidity, reduce the cost of borrowing, and make traditional savings less attractive—all positive for digital assets.

🚨 ODDS FOR RATE CUT IN JULY BUMPED TO 26.9% 😘 #FOMC pic.twitter.com/fXt9O5OCMb

— Crypto Seth (@seth_fin) June 26, 2025

But if inflation surprises to the upside, the Fed could hold off. That would dampen investor sentiment, at least in the short term.

Still, the bigger picture favors easing. Markets have been pricing in a shift for months, and many believe the worst of inflation is behind us. Crypto traders are simply waiting for confirmation from the data—and then the Fed.

Meanwhile, other headlines have kept investors on edge. From the sudden USDF depeg to 94 cents to massive whale Bitcoin transfers raising theories, the crypto landscape is anything but calm.

How Fed Rate Cuts Could Spark the Next Crypto Rally

The link between Fed rate cuts and crypto rallies isn’t new—it’s been seen during past easing cycles. When the Fed cuts rates, it typically pumps more liquidity into the system, encouraging investors to seek higher returns in riskier assets.

In 2020, for example, the Fed slashed rates in response to the pandemic. Bitcoin soared from under $10,000 to over $60,000 in the following year. A similar dynamic could play out in 2025 if the easing trend continues.

Here’s why:

1. Cheaper borrowing: Lower interest rates mean individuals and institutions can borrow more cheaply, freeing up capital that can be deployed into assets like crypto.

2. Weaker dollar pressure: Fed rate cuts can put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, making Bitcoin more attractive as an alternative store of value.

3. Risk-on environment: When the Fed eases, investor appetite for risk tends to rise. This often spills into the crypto space, boosting everything from Bitcoin to altcoins.

This could also fuel hype around speculative projects, such as the ongoing Pump.fun token presale, which has already attracted thousands of early investors betting on the next big breakout.

It’s not just tokens. Broader market shifts, like the $3.3T Solana ETF shakeup, highlight just how much macro factors like Fed policy can move sentiment and allocation across digital assets.

For now, the big date is July 30. Until then, crypto investors will keep their eyes on inflation data, jobs reports, and every signal from Fed officials.

If the data lines up, the Fed rate cut could be the spark that ignites the next leg of the crypto bull run.