Bitcoin Peak Warning as Global M2 Drops 1.8% in July

Key Points

• Bitcoin Peak Warning as Global M2 Drops 1.8% in July
• Analysts see Bitcoin’s peak aligning with the M2 shift
• Key cycle top expected between September and October
• Experts urge caution due to macroeconomic uncertainty

Global M2 supply, one of the clearest indicators of global liquidity, has taken a noticeable dip. After hitting an all-time high of $114.8 trillion in late June 2025, it has since declined to $112.7 trillion by early August.

This 1.8% drop might not seem drastic on its own, but analysts suggest it’s a possible early signal that Bitcoin’s current bull run could be nearing its end.

Bitcoin Price and M2 Supply with 84-Day Offset. Source: ₿rett – Techtoken

₿rett, a widely followed macro analyst and Bitcoin investor, explains that the M2 chart is showing classic signs of a trend reversal, forming a “lower high” and “lower low.” Historically, such formations have preceded downward shifts in market behavior.

According to ₿rett’s model, which uses an 84-day offset between M2 peaks and Bitcoin cycle tops, the next major Bitcoin Peak is likely to happen by late September.

He notes that previous Bitcoin tops occurred 525 to 532 days after a halving event, and we’re currently 518 days past the most recent halving. The timing lines up too well to ignore.

Global M2 has formed a lower high and lower low. Using the 84-day offset, the current peak is expected by late September.

As noted in my December post below, the past three Bitcoin peaks occurred 525–532 days post-halving.

Global M2’s current peak is 518 days after the halving.… https://t.co/0SgjZUJ8NA pic.twitter.com/M3peuULvyB

— ₿rett (@brett_eth) July 31, 2025

Adding weight to this forecast, analyst Master Kenobi uses a slightly longer offset,90 days, to map M2 to Bitcoin’s cycles. Based on his model, the current bull cycle should conclude sometime in October 2025.

Bitcoin Price and M2 Supply with 84-Day Offset. Source: Master Kenobi – Techtoken

“The money supply appears to have reached its local peak 31 days ago,” Kenobi noted. “Based on this, the pump signaling the cycle’s end should occur between late September and early October.”

For investors still recovering from events like the AguilaTrades Bitcoin loss, this could be a moment to reassess risk before the next market phase begins.

Zoom in: The Money Supply appears to have reached its local peak 31 days ago and has entered a period of decline. We’re not yet certain how long this will last, so we’ll keep monitoring it closely. Based on M2 and current data, the pump signaling the cycle’s end should occur… pic.twitter.com/979QReLgjY

— Master Kenobi (@btc_MasterPlan) July 31, 2025

Market Caution Grows as Macroeconomic Signals Diverge

Even as these technical models gain attention, not all experts are convinced that we’re heading toward a definitive Bitcoin Peak. Colin Talks Crypto, another respected voice in the space, agrees that the recent decline in M2 is the sharpest seen in over seven months. Still, he warns against overreliance on this data point.

“Rather than jumping to conclusions with premature data, I think a continued watchful eye on the global M2 line during the next several weeks is our best course of action,” he advised.

Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC

The largest decline in global M2 has just occured (see top-right of global M2 line) in the last 7 months.

Since we’ve pushed the global M2 line forward by 90 days, this means this drop in global liquidity could reflect itself in BTC around late… https://t.co/gYuNQGxyJR pic.twitter.com/P01YjIQbRG

— Colin Talks Crypto 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) July 30, 2025

Colin argues that while M2 can provide useful clues, it’s just one part of a bigger macro picture. The crypto market remains sensitive to a wide range of factors, especially those tied to central bank decisions, inflation, and investor sentiment.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, particularly any hints about rate cuts or changes to balance sheet strategies, could rapidly shift market conditions. Likewise, external events like geopolitical tensions or global recession fears could either accelerate or delay a Bitcoin Peak.

Discussions are also heating up on the regulatory front. The recent debate around Crypto ETF rules impacting altcoins and ongoing policy changes in stablecoin oversight, like the USDM Stablecoin framework, are reshaping investor expectations and asset behavior.

How M2 Liquidity Trends Shape Bitcoin Bull Runs

Global M2 supply, the total amount of money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money, is often viewed as a pulse check on global liquidity.

When M2 expands, it usually signals an environment of easy money, low interest rates, and higher risk-taking among investors. Under these conditions, speculative assets like Bitcoin tend to thrive.

However, the moment M2 begins to contract or plateau, markets tend to cool off. Bitcoin, which has grown increasingly tied to macroeconomic factors, often reacts by slowing down or correcting. This is exactly what seems to be happening now.

In past cycles, a peak in M2 has often been followed by a local top in Bitcoin prices roughly 2 to 3 months later.

For example, in 2021, Bitcoin hit its all-time high just a few months after M2 growth stalled globally. The repeat of this pattern, combined with post-halving timing models, is what has analysts sounding the alarm today.

But it’s worth noting: while M2 trends are insightful, they are also lagging indicators. They don’t predict market tops; they confirm past shifts in liquidity. That’s why the combination of M2 with halving data and market sentiment gives a fuller picture.

Some also argue that broader crypto fundamentals are improving. Ethereum’s recent activity, which saw its on-chain reserves grow by $10 billion, reflects growing institutional confidence, another factor that could challenge bearish M2-based narratives.

Meanwhile, utility debates, such as the XRP utility showdown sparked by Ripple’s CTO, show the market is alive with energy that may stretch this cycle further than expected.

With September and October approaching fast, all eyes will be on whether Bitcoin reaches another cycle peak or if macro headwinds throw the market off its path.