By Key Points
- Bitcoin rebounds 25% in April, pushing sentiment to “Greed”
- Whale wallets and institutions accelerate accumulation
- Glassnode shows rising accumulation scores across investors
- Fidelity and ARK Invest lift Bitcoin forecasts significantly
April has delivered a sharp turnaround in the crypto market. After starting the month under pressure, Bitcoin surged by 25%, lifting the mood. The major trigger? A clear rise in Bitcoin whale accumulation and a market-wide shift from fear to greed.
According to Alternative.me, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index jumped from 18 to 72, reaching its highest point since February. On the other hand, CoinMarketCap’s index moved from 15 to 52 — from extreme fear to a neutral stance. Both indexes confirm that investor confidence has returned.
This renewed optimism comes after multiple bullish divergence signals. Analysts suggest this momentum could continue across both Bitcoin and altcoins — unless disrupted by an unexpected macro shift.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Sourc0e: Alternative – Techtoken
Meanwhile, on-chain activity backs the optimism. Whales holding over 10,000 BTC have been steadily accumulating. Data from Glassnode shows their Trend Accumulation Score reached a near-maximum 0.9 during April.
Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC also joined the rally, with their scores rising to 0.7, showing a broader confidence among large players. Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $93,000 reflects this aggressive accumulation phase.
Trend Accumulation Score. Source: glassnode – Techtoken
If this trend continues, we might see the market entering a phase of extreme greed, often followed by sharp price movements. For a closer look at what might be next, check out our piece on why the Bitcoin breakout may be closer than you think.
In parallel, Bitcoin ETFs added more fuel to the rally, logging $2.68 billion in inflows last week alone. That’s five straight days of positive activity, signaling consistent institutional demand.
“So far, large players have been buying into this rally,” noted a report from Glassnode.
#Bitcoin Whales are back in full force:
🔺Holders of >10K $BTC are showing near-perfect accumulation (~0.9)
🔺1K–10K $BTC wallets follow closely (~0.7)
🔺100–1K $BTC are also pivoting to accumulation (~0.5).So far, large players have been buying into this rally. pic.twitter.com/foKkBmMwOX
— glassnode (@glassnode) April 24, 2025
Fidelity and ARK Invest Forecast Higher Bitcoin Prices
It’s not just whales and ETFs signaling confidence. Big institutions are also backing Bitcoin’s current momentum with bold new forecasts.
Fidelity Digital Assets revealed that the Bitcoin supply on exchanges is now at its lowest since 2018 — only 2.6 million BTC remain on exchanges. Over 425,000 BTC have been withdrawn since November 2024, and public companies are buying more than 30,000 BTC every month in 2025.
Bitcoin Balance on Exchanges. Source: glassnode. – Techtoken
The firm sees this as a long-term trend. In fact, the latest data shows corporate treasuries are increasingly holding Bitcoin as a reserve. Japan-based Metaplanet, for instance, has been aggressively stacking BTC this year. Read how Metaplanet’s Bitcoin holdings are making headlines.
“We’ve seen consistent outflows from exchanges driven by public company purchases,” Fidelity stated.
We have seen #bitcoin supply on exchanges dropping due to public company purchases—something we anticipate accelerating in the near future. Here are some of the current trends unfolding: ⬇️ 🧵
— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) April 24, 2025
At the same time, ARK Invest revised its long-term target. In its Big Ideas 2025 report, the firm projected a bull case of $2.4 million per BTC by 2030 — a significant jump from its earlier $1.5 million estimate.
This bold forecast is based on:
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Institutional adoption
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Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset
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Growth of decentralized finance (DeFi)
ARK’s update arrives in a month already buzzing with activity. From ETF inflows to rumors of a Pokémon-inspired NFT game pumping SUI token 62%, April has shown how quickly sentiment can shift in crypto.
2030 Bitcoin Price Target. Source: ARK Invest.
2030 Bitcoin Price Target. Source: ARK Invest. – Techtoken
Retail Braces for May Volatility Despite Institutional Confidence
While institutions are bullish, retail investors are starting to tread carefully. The classic market adage, “Sell in May and go away,” is making a comeback on crypto forums. With macro factors like tariff threats and interest rate uncertainty in the air, traders are preparing for possible turbulence.
Sentiment analysis reveals a split: institutional inflows and whale activity signal strong buying power, while retail shows hesitation.
Another wild card? Geopolitics and monetary policy. Just earlier this month, a showdown between Trump, Powell, and Bitcoin created ripples in both the crypto and FX markets. It sent the dollar crashing and Bitcoin soaring to $87K. Here’s how that clash shook the markets.
And let’s not forget the upcoming options expiry events — a known trigger for short-term price moves. If you want to understand how options expiration impacts Bitcoin and Ethereum pricing, check out our detailed explainer on Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry.
Whether May brings a cooldown or another leg up remains to be seen. For now, the market’s greed-driven momentum, whale accumulation, and institutional forecasts point to a bullish narrative.
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