By Key Points
- Trump Tariff War Bitcoin Boom Could Mirror 2017 Rally
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) in 2025 mirrors 2016 trends, hinting at a possible Bitcoin rally.
- Gold surged 10% YTD, while Bitcoin dropped 10%, reflecting risk aversion.
- Analysts predict an “Altcoin Season” could coincide with Trump’s return.
- Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could lead the next market cycle.
Crypto markets are once again mirroring historical trends. Analysts are closely watching the US Dollar Index (DXY) and macroeconomic conditions, drawing comparisons between the current landscape and Trump’s first term.
Deja vu all over again pic.twitter.com/MhG7QNjEJh
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 6, 2025
A recent ZeroHedge chart highlights striking similarities between DXY’s movements in 2016 and 2025, fueling speculation about a potential Bitcoin bull run akin to 2017.
2016 vs. 2025 DXY Chart. Source: Zerohedge on X- Techtoken
Market analysts from The Kobeissi Letter note that while today’s economic climate differs from 2019’s, asset classes—including stocks, gold, oil, and Bitcoin—are reacting in a familiar way.
Another topic we have spent a lot of time on is the Trump Tariff War 1.0 vs 2.0.
This chart summarizes the price action similarities exceptionally well.
While we are certainly in a different macroeconomic backdrop, a TON of the technical movements have been similar. pic.twitter.com/wsTDrsQxhG
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 6, 2025
So far in 2025, gold has surged over 10%, signaling a flight to safety. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has dropped 10%, reflecting market caution.
Bitcoin’s volatility remains a defining feature of the current cycle. On March 4, BTC fell $2,000 within 25 minutes, nearly touching a critical resistance at $90,000. Given how Bitcoin’s market cap can shift by $100 billion without major news, liquidity-driven movements are playing a crucial role.
Trump Tariff War 1.0 (2019) vs. 2.0 (2025). Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X
Historical data suggests that long-term investors who bought during Trump’s first trade war (2019) found excellent entry points. If past trends hold, the current uncertainty may present similar opportunities.
Will “Altcoin Season” Align with “Trump Season”?
A new theory is gaining traction: If Trump’s return follows historical patterns, an Altcoin Season could be on the horizon. Crypto investor bitcoindata21 has pointed out that Bitcoin’s 2025 price action looks eerily similar to 2017, when a major altcoin boom followed BTC’s rise.
Historically, Bitcoin rallies have preceded explosive gains in altcoins. As capital rotates from BTC into smaller coins, a surge in the broader crypto market becomes more likely.
Additionally, broader economic trends support this theory. The DXY recently dropped below a key support level—a historically bullish signal for Bitcoin. A weakening dollar typically drives investors toward alternative assets like crypto and gold.
Another bullish indicator is the M2 money supply, which has been expanding. Historically, whenever M2 liquidity increases, Bitcoin experiences strong rallies. Analysts anticipate another surge in late March, aligning with improved liquidity conditions.
M2 MONEY SUPPLY IS STILL INCREASING…
WE ARE HEADED MUCH HIGHER! pic.twitter.com/WhyMWj58rB
— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) February 26, 2025
What This Means for Crypto Investors
For crypto traders and investors, the next few months could be critical. If past patterns hold, Bitcoin may see a strong uptrend, with altcoins following closely behind. However, volatility remains high, meaning timing is everything.
With Trump’s potential return stirring speculation and global markets reacting to shifting policies, traders must stay informed. Liquidity conditions, DXY movements, and macroeconomic factors will all play a role in shaping the next crypto bull cycle.
While short-term uncertainty remains, those who position themselves wisely could benefit from a market rally reminiscent of 2017. As always, risk management and patience will be key in navigating this evolving landscape.
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